A comprehensive evaluation framework for the water ecological footprint of Guiyang City has been constructed, covering current situation assessment, mechanism explanation, trend prediction, and path assessment. The key factors driving the evolution of water ecological footprint have been identified. The water ecological footprint of Guiyang City from 2024 to 2028 under various policy scenarios was predicted and the adaptive management path was evaluated. The results show that from 2024 to 2028, the water ecological footprint depth per capita in Guiyang City is always greater than 1, indicating that the city has a long-term dependence on existing water resources. The analysis of the driving mechanism shows that, GDP, unit GDP water intensity and total water supply are the main factors driving the evolution of Guiyang’s water ecological footprint. The water-saving path is the optimal adaptive management path for Guiyang City from 2024 to 2028, which performs the best in risk avoidance and system resilience.