多源融合降水对小尺度流域洪水模拟能力研究
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(河海大学水文水资源学院)

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石朋(1976—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文物理规律模拟及水文预报研究。E-mail:ship@hhu.edu.cn

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3211400)


Flood simulation capability study of multi-source precipitation fusion in small-scale watersheds
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(College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University)

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    摘要:

    为研究降水输入的准确性对洪水模拟的的影响,以大坡岭流域作为小尺度代表流域,评估了反距离加权插值(IDW)、最优插值(OI)、卡尔曼滤波(KF)3种融合算法对CMORPH卫星降水产品的改进效果,并基于新安江模型分析了不同降水数据源的洪水模拟能力。结果表明:OI法对CMORPH改进最为显著,其相关系数中位数提升至0.783,平均绝对误差和均方根误差中位数较原始数据分别降低了49.2%和36.6%,IDW法精度次之,KF法改进有限;利用OI法融合降水数据驱动的洪水模拟效果最佳,纳什效率系数均值较地面实测数据提升约32.8%,其中2000年后洪水场次模拟提升达57.1%,证实多源融合降水数据可有效提升大坡岭流域的洪水模拟精度。

    Abstract:

    To study the impact of the accuracy of precipitation inputs on flood simulation, the Dapoling Basin was selected as a small-scale representative watershed. The improvement effects of three fusion algorithms, namely, inverse distance weight (IDW), optimal interpolation (OI) and Kalman filter (KF), on the satellite precipitation products of CMORPH were evaluated, and the flood simulation capabilities of different precipitation data sources were analyzed based on the Xin'anjiang model. The results show that compared with the original data, the OI method improves CMORPH most significantly, with the median correlation coefficient raised to 0.783, and the median mean absolute error and root mean square error reduced by 49.2% and 36.6%, respectively. The accuracy of IDW method is second, and the improvement of KF method is limited. The flood simulation driven by using OI fused precipitation data is the most effective, with the mean Nash Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient improved by about 32.8% compared with the ground data, of which the simulation of post2000 flood field is improved by 57.1%, which confirms that the multi source fused precipitation data can effectively improve the flood simulation accuracy of the Dapoling Basin.

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石朋,徐昕杰,瞿思敏,等.多源融合降水对小尺度流域洪水模拟能力研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):48-56.(Shi Peng, Xu Xinjie, Qu Simin, et al. Flood simulation capability study of multi-source precipitation fusion in small-scale watersheds[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):48-56.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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