基于Copula函数的郑州市暴雨与内涝风险关系研究
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(1.郑州大学水利与交通学院;2.郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院 )

作者简介:

张金萍(1979—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水资源开发利用与管理研究。E-mail:jinping2000_zh@163.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52379028) ;河南省杰出青年科学基金项目(242300421007)


Study on relationship between rainstorm and waterlogging risk in Zhengzhou City based on Copula function
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University; 2.Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection & Regional Coordinated Development, Zhengzhou University)

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    摘要:

    针对短历时强降雨引发城市内涝的问题,基于多源数据与SWMM模拟,构建了考虑降雨特征、下垫面属性、社会经济属性、管网运行属性的郑州市中心城区内涝风险评估指标体系,并引入Copula函数建立了降水量、降雨强度与内涝风险的二维联合分布模型。结果表明:降水量、降雨强度、不透水率、平均坡度、人口密度是影响郑州市中心城区内涝风险的重要因素,管网排水能力不足会加剧内涝风险;155场短历时降雨事件中,中风险与高风险事件占比分别为53.5%和22.6%,研究区排水系统对中等及以上强度降雨的承载能力有待提升;降水量与内涝风险的同步遭遇概率达87.2%,降雨强度与内涝风险的同步遭遇概率为59%,降水量和降雨强度均是内涝风险的重要影响因素。

    Abstract:

    In response to the problem of urban waterlogging caused by short-term heavy rainfall, a risk assessment index system for waterlogging in the central urban area of Zhengzhou was constructed based on multi-source data and SWMM simulation, considering rainfall characteristics, underlying surface attributes, socio-economic attributes, and pipeline operation attributes. Two-dimensional joint distribution models of precipitation, rainfall intensity, and waterlogging risk were established by introducing the Copula function. The results indicate that precipitation, rainfall intensity, impermeability rate, average slope, and population density are important factors affecting the risk of waterlogging in the central urban area of Zhengzhou. Insufficient drainage capacity of the pipeline network will exacerbate the risk of waterlogging. Among 155 short duration rainfall events, the proportion of medium risk and high-risk events was 53.5% and 22.6%, respectively, indicating that the drainage system in the study area needs to improve its carrying capacity for moderate and above intensity rainfall. The calculation results of the Copula joint distribution model show that the synchronous encounter probability between precipitation and waterlogging risk is 87.2%, and the synchronous encounter probability between rainfall intensity and waterlogging risk is 59%, indicating that both precipitation and rainfall intensity are important influencing factors of waterlogging risk.

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张金萍,杨沂荣,王尧,等.基于Copula函数的郑州市暴雨与内涝风险关系研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):57-64.(Zhang Jinping, Yang Yirong, Wang Yao, et al. Study on relationship between rainstorm and waterlogging risk in Zhengzhou City based on Copula function[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):57-64.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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