考虑水库调蓄影响的洪水预报智能校正方法研究
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(1.河海大学水文水资源学院;2.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;3.中国长江电力股份有限公司 )

作者简介:

陈顼(2002—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文物理规律及水文预报研究。E-mail:chenxu_hhu@163.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(52579007);国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U2240225);长江电力股份有限公司科技项目(Z242302050)


Research on intelligent correction methods for flood forecasting considering reservoir regulation impacts
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University;3.China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd.)

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    摘要:

    为提高流域洪水预报精度并支撑预报调度一体化,以嘉陵江流域为研究区,构建了考虑水库调蓄影响的洪水预报智能校正框架:以VIC分布式水文模型获取流域产汇流过程,采用K最邻近(KNN)算法基于历史误差相似性进行多步外延流量校正,引入分层嵌套式长短期记忆(LSTM)出库模型(LSTM1刻画入出流基本响应,LSTM2融入水位库容约束与水量平衡)预测水库出库流量,并在干支流与梯级水库间逐级耦合实现全过程动态修正。结果表明:VIC在受水库影响较小站点的场次洪水模拟平均纳什效率系数(NSE)约0.70、相对误差约10%~15%;KNN算法校正在短预见期(≤12h)的NSE多大于0.90、相对误差小于10%,长预见期仍保持改进;与出入平衡、参数化调度方法相比,LSTM在亭子口水库—草街电站—北碚序列上对复杂非线性调蓄刻画更优,洪水预报精度提升显著。考虑水库影响的洪水预报智能校正方法可显著降低水库入库流量和下游控制站流量过程的模拟误差。

    Abstract:

    To improve basin-scale flood forecasting accuracy and support the integration of flood forecasting and reservoir operation, taking the Jialing River Basin as the study area, an intelligent correction framework for flood forecasting considering reservoir regulation impacts was developed. In the framework, the VIC distributed hydrological model was utilized to simulate the runoff generation and routing processes. The K-nearest neighbor(KNN) algorithm was employed for multi step extrapolated discharge correction based on historical error similarity. A hierarchical nested long short term memory (LSTM) model was introduced to predict reservoir outflow: LSTM1 characterized the basic inflow outflow response, while LSTM2 incorporated water level storage constraints and water balance principles. Dynamic correction of the entire process was achieved through stage by stage coupling across mainstreams, tributaries, and cascade reservoirs. The results show that the VIC model achieves an average NSE of approximately 0.70 and relative errors of 10%~15% at stations with minimal reservoir impact. The KNN correction yields NSE values mostly above 0.90 and relative errors below 10% for short lead times (≤12h), with sustained improvements for longer lead times. Compared with inflow outflow balance and parametric operation methods, the LSTM model better characterizes complex nonlinear regulation along the Tingzikou ReservoirCaojie Station Beibei sequence, significantly enhancing flood forecasting accuracy. This intelligent correction method significantly reduces simulation errors for both reservoir inflows and downstream control station discharge processes.

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陈顼,吴志勇,何海,等.考虑水库调蓄影响的洪水预报智能校正方法研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):72-80.(Chen Xu, Wu Zhiyong, He Hai, et al. Research on intelligent correction methods for flood forecasting considering reservoir regulation impacts[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):72-80.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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