基于三维Copula函数的干旱事件识别及其演变特征研究
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(1.中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院山地自然灾害与工程安全重点实验室;2.中国科学院大学重庆学院;3.武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室 )

作者简介:

季永月(1996—),女,助理研究员,博士,主要从事生态水文学研究。E-mail:jiyongyue@cigit.ac.cn

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基金项目:

重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目 (CSTB2025NSCQ-LZX0055);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB1390000);中国博士后科学基金项目(2025M780358);重庆市博士后研究项目特别资助项目(2025CQBSHTB3101);中国科学院青年创新促进会资助项目(2021385);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42401093,42207104)


Research on identification and evolution characteristics of drought events based on three-dimensional Copula function
Author:
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(1.Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2.Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University)

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    摘要:

    为研究气候变化背景下全球干旱演变的时空特征,基于三维Copula函数,融合降水与潜在蒸散发差值(PPET)、土壤湿度(SM)和径流3个干旱要素,构建了综合季节性干旱指数(CSDI),并分析了1982—2021年全球干旱的时空差异。结果表明:CSDI与标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)的相关系数为0.914;在历史典型干旱事件验证方面,相比SPEI,CSDI在干旱初期识别的干旱覆盖面积更大,且与PPET和SM负异常的时空一致性更高,对2009—2010年中国西南、2010—2011年非洲之角及1992年中欧历史干旱事件的初、中、后期演变过程刻画完整;在干旱特征方面,1982—2021年全球干旱呈现出显著的空间差异,干旱与半干旱区表现为高频次、长持续和高强度的耦合特征,湿润区整体风险较低,但北半球部分中高纬度湿润区出现较高的干旱频次与强度;典型干旱区平均干旱历时缩短,而湿润区在频次增加的同时,呈现出更持久的干旱过程,总体上,全球干旱演变趋势呈现出频发化、快发化、极端化的特征。

    Abstract:

    To examine the spatiotemporal evolution of global drought under the background of climate change, this study developed a composite seasonal drought index (CSDI) by integrating precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration (PPET), soil moisture (SM), and runoff using a three dimensional Copula function, and analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of global drought from 1982 to 2021. Results indicated that the correlation coefficient between CSDI and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reached 0.914. In terms of historical drought validation, compared to SPEI, CSDI identified a larger drought coverage area in the early stage and exhibited higher spatiotemporal consistency with negative anomalies of PPET and SM. Furthermore, CSDI completely captured the early, middle, and late evolutionary stages of typical historical droughts, such as the Southwest China drought from 2009 to 2010, the drought in Horn of Africa from 2010 to 2011, and the Central Europe drought in 1992. Regarding drought characteristics, global drought exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity from 1982 to 2021. Arid and semiarid zones showed a coupling feature characterized by high frequency, long duration, and high intensity, whereas humid regions generally faced lower risk, though some mid to high latitude humid zones in the Northern Hemisphere experienced elevated flash frequency and intensity. Temporally, in typical arid regions, the average drought duration shortened, while humid regions displayed more persistent drought processes with increasing frequency. Overall, the global trend of drought shows characteristics of frequent occurrence, rapid onset, and extreme severity.

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季永月,曾思栋,阳林翰,等.基于三维Copula函数的干旱事件识别及其演变特征研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):118-126, 217.(Ji Yongyue, Zeng Sidong, Yang Linhan, et al. Research on identification and evolution characteristics of drought events based on three-dimensional Copula function[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):118-126, 217.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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