基于Vine Copula函数的黄河流域多变量复合事件风险评估
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作者单位:

(1.黄河水利委员会黄河水资源中心;2.西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室;3.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;4.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室;5.水利部防洪抗旱减灾技术创新中心(水旱灾害防御中心);6.华北水利水电大学水利学院 )

作者简介:

郭盛明(1996—),男,工程师,硕士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:nwafugsm@163.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52479027);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(XYTD2026-11);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022018)


Risk assessment of multivariate compound events in the Yellow River Basin based on Vine Copula functions
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Yellow River Water Resources Center, Yellow River Conservancy Commission; 2.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University; 3.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University; 4.State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research; 5.Technology Innovation Center for Flood and Drought Prevention and Disaster Reduction, Ministry of Water Resources; 6.College of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power)

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    摘要:

    针对全球变暖背景下多变量复合事件频发趋强,其级联灾害效应及复杂非线性影响日益突出的问题,采用Vine Copula函数评估了黄河流域夏季气象干旱、高温、农业干旱三变量复合事件发生的风险,并量化了在某一等级气象干旱和/或高温发生条件下,轻度等级以上农业干旱的风险。结果表明:黄河流域夏季气象干旱、高温、农业干旱同时发生的三变量“和事件”的高风险热点区域主要位于流域中下游地区;相较于流域西北部,东部地区发生三变量“和事件”和气象干旱/高温、农业干旱同时发生的三变量“或事件”的风险更高;在不同等级气象干旱和高温同时发生或至少有一个发生的条件下,流域东部发生轻度等级以上农业干旱的风险显著高于西部。

    Abstract:

    In response to the increasing frequency and intensity of multivariate compound events under global warming, along with their growing cascading disaster effects and complex nonlinear impacts, this study employed Vine Copula functions to assess the risk of trivariate compound events, involving meteorological drought, high temperature, and agricultural drought in summer of the Yellow River Basin. It further quantified the risk of agricultural drought at mild level or above under the conditions of specific severities of meteorological drought and/or high temperature. Results show that high-risk hotspots of the concurrent meteorological drought, high temperature, and agricultural drought(i.e., trivariate “AND events”) are primarily located in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Compared to the northwestern regions, the eastern areas face higher risks of the “AND events” and the cooccurence of meteorological drought/high temperature and agricultural drought (i.e., trivariate “OR events”). Under conditions where meteorological drought and high temperature of different severities occur simultaneously, or at least one of them occurs, the risk of agricultural drought at mild level or above in the eastern parts of the basin is significantly higher than that in the western regions.

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郭盛明,吴海江,粟晓玲,等.基于Vine Copula函数的黄河流域多变量复合事件风险评估[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):137-145.(Guo Shengming, Wu Haijiang, Su Xiaoling, et al. Risk assessment of multivariate compound events in the Yellow River Basin based on Vine Copula functions[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):137-145.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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