中国水资源节约集约安全利用能力的时空分异特征与影响因素研究
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(1.北方工业大学经济管理学院;2.北方工业大学资源与环境管理研究中心 )

作者简介:

吴丹(1986—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:wu_daniel@163.com

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国家社会科学基金项目(22FGLB016);北方工业大学北京城市治理研究基地项目(2025CSZL06);2025年秦创原“揭榜挂帅”课题项目(JSHT20250540);北京市自然科学基金(QG26043)


Research on spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources in China
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(1.Schoolof Economics & Management, North China University of Technology;2.Research Center for Resource and Environmental Management, North China University of Technology)

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    摘要:

    为明晰中国水资源节约集约安全利用能力的时空分异特征与影响因素,基于社会经济自然复合生态系统理论和社会生态系统理论,构建了社会经济生态水资源复合系统视角下的水资源节约集约安全利用能力评估指标体系,集成建立了“理想解模型层次等权法变异系数法障碍度模型面板Tobit模型”综合评估模型,开展了中国水资源节约集约安全利用能力评估。结果表明:中国各省份水资源节约集约安全利用能力波动上升,至2023年,21个省份超过0.8,北京、天津、河北、山东和河南相对最优;内部影响因素方面,社会系统的障碍度最小,经济、生态系统的障碍度缓慢下降,水资源系统的障碍度最大,排名前5的障碍度因子依次为再生水利用率、生态用水比例、万元服务业增加值用水量、供水管网漏损率、地下水占总供水量比例;外部影响因素方面,经济发展水平、产业结构、政府干预程度和科技创新能力的正向作用显著,水资源禀赋和外商投资水平具有一定抑制作用,科技创新能力对水资源节约集约安全利用能力提升的影响效应最显著。

    Abstract:

    In order to clarify spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources in China, the evaluation system of the capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources has been established based on socio-economic-natural complex ecosystem theory and socio-ecological system theory, from the perspective of the complex system of “socio-economic-ecological-water resources”. The integrated evaluation model combining “the ideal solution model, the hierarchical equal-weight method, the coefficient of variation approach, barrier model, and panel Tobit model” is established, to evaluate the capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources in China. The research indicates that the capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources among China’s provinces exhibits a fluctuating upward trend. By 2023,21 provinces had a value exceeding 0.8, with Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan being relatively optimal. Regarding internal influencing factors, social system presents the lowest obstacle degree, while economic and ecological systems demonstrate a gradual decrease in their obstacle degree. Water resources system exhibits the highest obstacle degree. And the top five obstacle factors are ranked as follows:reclaimed water utilization efficiency, the proportion of ecological water resources to water consumption, water consumption per 10000 yuan of service sector value-added, water leakage rate in supply networks, the proportion of groundwater to total water supply. Regarding external influencing factors, the positive effects of economic development levels, industrial structure, degree of government intervention, and technological innovation capacity are significant, while water resource endowment and foreign investment levels exert a certain degree of restraint. The impact of technological innovation capability on enhancing the capacity for the conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources is the most significant. Keywords: comprehensive system of socio-economic-ecological-water resources; capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources; ideal solution model; obstacle degree model; Tobit model; China 〖FL

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吴丹,王浩宇.中国水资源节约集约安全利用能力的时空分异特征与影响因素研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(4):36-46, 55.(Wu Dan, Wang Haoyu. Research on spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of capacity for conservation, intensive and safe utilization of water resources in China[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(4):36-46, 55.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-31
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