耦合融雪冻土及机器学习的新安江模型在高寒区的径流模拟
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;2.河海大学水文水资源学院;3.河海大学全球变化与水循环国际合作联合实验室;4.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;5.黄河水文水资源科学研究院 )

作者简介:

刘娣(1986—),女,副研究员,博士,主要从事变化环境下水文循环演变机理研究。E-mail:liudi@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202301-02);国家自然科学基金项目(42471019)


Runoff simulation integrating snowmelt, soil freeze-thaw, and machine learning with Xin’anjiang model in high-cold region
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(1.StateKey Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University;2.Collegeof Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;3.Joint International Research Laboratory of Global Change and Water Cycle, HoHai University;4.YangtzeInstitute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University;5.Hydrologyand Water Resources Research Institute of Yellow River)

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    摘要:

    以黄河源区黑河若尔盖水文站上游流域为研究区,构建了耦合融雪、土壤冻融模块及随机森林算法的智慧新安江模型,使用2007—2019年降水、蒸发、气温资料开展径流模拟,并将其与传统新安江模型、耦合融雪土壤冻融的新安江模型及随机森林模型进行对比,评估了智慧新安江模型在高寒区水文过程模拟中的适应性。结果表明:传统新安江模型在验证期的整体模拟能力尚可,但在消融期模拟能力有限,无法准确刻画消融期径流过程;单纯随机森林模型虽能捕捉消融期水文过程非线性特征,但验证期整体模拟效果不够理想;耦合融雪土壤冻融模块使新安江模型不确定性增加35.6%,但模型稳定性和模拟性能表现良好;智慧新安江模型在消融期的纳什效率系数(NSE)和克林古普塔效率系数(KGE)均在0.70以上,验证期的NSE、KGE和相关系数均超过0.90,百分比偏差在±10%以内,体现出更高的模拟性能与稳定性。

    Abstract:

    Taking the upstream basin of the Ruoergai Hydrological Station of the Heihe River in the source area of the Yellow River as the study area, a smart Xin’anjiang model coupling the snowmelt soil freeze-thaw module and random forest algorithm was constructed. Runoff simulation was carried out using precipitation, evaporation and temperature data from 2007 to 2019. And the simulation results were compared with the traditional Xin’anjiang model, the Xin’anjiang model coupling snowmelt, soil freeze-thaw and the random forest model to evaluate the adaptability of the smart Xin’anjiang model in the hydrological process simulation in high-cold regions. The results show that the overall simulation ability of the traditional Xin’anjiang model during the verification period is acceptable, but its simulation ability during the melting period is limited and cannot accurately depict the runoff process during the melting period. The simple random forest model can capture the nonlinear characteristics of the hydrological process during the melting period, the overall simulation effect during the verification period is not ideal. The coupling of the snowmelt soil freeze-thaw module increased the uncertainty of the Xin ’anjiang model by 35.6%, but the model stability and simulation performance were good. During the ablation period, the Nash efficiency coefficient

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刘娣,董兆龙,吕海深,等.耦合融雪冻土及机器学习的新安江模型在高寒区的径流模拟[J].水资源保护,2026,42(4):87-98.(Liu Di, Dong Zhaolong, Lyu Haishen, et al. Runoff simulation integrating snowmelt, soil freeze-thaw, and machine learning with Xin’anjiang model in high-cold region[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(4):87-98.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-31
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