基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝行人风险动态评估
作者:
作者单位:

(1.郑州大学水利与交通学院;2.辽宁省水利厅;3.上海建工(浙江)水利水电建设有限公司 )

作者简介:

许红师(1992—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事洪涝灾害智能模拟与调控研究。E-mail:xuhongshi@zzu.edu.cn

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52507925);河南省杰出青年基金项目(242300421038);河南省科技攻关项目(252102321020)


Dynamic assessment of pedestrian risk in urban flood based on multi-agent model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University;2.Liaoning Provincial Department of Water Resources;3.Shanghai Construction Group(Zhejiang) Water Conservancy and Hydropower Construction Co., Ltd.)

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    针对城市洪涝风险评估中对行人动态变化刻画不足的问题,提出了基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝行人风险动态评估方法。基于人口热力图建立行人智能体初始空间分布,将基于兴趣点划分的城市功能区作为行人智能体活动的基础环境层,结合概率有限状态机和速度衰减曲线刻画洪涝情景下行人行为规则;耦合一二维水动力模型建立城市洪涝多智能体模型,利用历史降雨及人口热力图验证模型的可靠性,并对不同降雨重现期和降雨时机下的行人风险进行动态评估。郑州市金水区花园路片区应用评估结果表明:建立的模型模拟结果与实际热力图相对误差小于15%;当降雨重现期大于50a时,中高风险行人智能体数目显著增加,增幅达143%;工作日因刚性出行需求导致的中高风险行人智能体数目显著高于周末,增幅为49%;早高峰和晚高峰中高风险行人智能体数目达到峰值。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem of insufficient characterization of pedestrian dynamic changes in urban flood risk assessment, a multi-agent model based dynamic assessment method for urban flood pedestrian risk is proposed. The initial spatial distribution of pedestrian agents is established based on population heat maps. Urban functional zones are delineated based on points of interest to serve as the base environment layer for pedestrian agent activities. A probabilistic finite state machine and velocity decay curves are combined to characterize pedestrian behavior rules under flood scenarios. A 1D-2D hydrodynamic model is coupled to establish an urban flood multi-agent-based model. Historical rainfall data and population heat maps are used to verify model reliability, and the dynamic changes in pedestrian risk under different rainfall return periods and rainfall occurrence time are assessed. The method is applied to the Huayuan Road area in Jinshui District, Zhengzhou City. The evaluation results show that the relative error between the simulated results of the established model and the actual heat map is less than 15%. When the rainfall return period exceeds 50 a, the number of medium-to-high-risk pedestrian agents increases significantly by 143%. The number of medium-to-high-risk pedestrian agents on weekdays is significantly higher than on weekends due to rigid travel demand by 49%. The number of medium-to-high-risk pedestrian agents peaks during the morning rush hour and evening rush hour. Keywords: urban flood; multi-agent model; pedestrian risk; population heat map; Zhengzhou City 〖FL

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

许红师,邓宇赫,王慧亮,等.基于多智能体模型的城市洪涝行人风险动态评估[J].水资源保护,2026,42(4):129-138, 149.(Xu Hongshi, Deng Yuhe, Wang Huiliang, et al. Dynamic assessment of pedestrian risk in urban flood based on multi-agent model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(4):129-138, 149.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-31
  • 出版日期: