基于聚类及决策树的长江中上游流域洪水类型动态识别研究
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(1.大连理工大学建设工程学院;2.淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心) )

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丁伟(1987—)女,副教授,博士,主要从事流域水资源管理研究。E-mail:weiding@dlut.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金项目(U2240204)


Research on dynamic identification of flood types in middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin based on clustering and decision trees
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(1.School of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology;2.Hydrological Bureau (Information Center) of Huaihe River Commission)

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    摘要:

    为应对长江中上游流域洪水类型复杂且遭遇规律多变给流域防洪调度带来的挑战,构建了耦合K-Means++聚类算法与决策树算法的洪水类型动态识别模型,对长江中上游流域的三峡入库洪水类型进行了识别。结果表明:依据次洪总量占比和次降雨总量占比2个指标分别将长江中上游流域洪水划分为岷沱嘉陵江遭遇型、岷沱金沙江及向寸区间遭遇型、岷沱嘉陵江及向寸与寸三区间遭遇型、乌江及向寸与寸三区间遭遇型4种类型,分类一致性高达88.4%,各类型洪水特征显著;依据降雨信息动态识别洪水类型的整体精度为83.3%,不同类型洪水的精确度、召回率、F1分数3个评价指标的加权平均值均高于0.70,模型对多数洪水类型的识别性能良好。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges posed by the complex and varied flood types in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, a dynamic identification model for flood types was constructed by coupling K-Means++clustering algorithm and decision tree algorithm. The model was used to identify the types of Three Gorges inflow floods in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The results indicate that based on two indicators of the proportion of total secondary floods and the proportion of total secondary net rainfall floods,floods in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River can be classified into four types, including the Min River, the Tuo River, and the Jialing River encounter type, the Min River, the Tuo River, the Jialing River, and the Xiangcun interval encounter type, the Min River, the Tuo River, the Jialing River and Xiongchun, Chunsan intervals encounter type, and the Wujiang River and Xiongchun, Chunsan intervals encounter type. The classification consistency is as high as 88.4%, and the characteristics of various types of floods are significant. The overall accuracy of dynamically identifying flood types based on rainfall information is 83.3%. The weighted average values of the accuracy, recall rate, and F1 score for different types of floods are all above 0.70, indicating that the model has good recognition performance for most flood types. Keywords: K-Means++ clustering algorithm; decision tree algorithm; flood type identification; upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin 〖FL

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丁伟,赵美晨,王浅宁,等.基于聚类及决策树的长江中上游流域洪水类型动态识别研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(4):139-149.(Ding Wei, Zhao Meichen, Wang Qianning, et al. Research on dynamic identification of flood types in middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin based on clustering and decision trees[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(4):139-149.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-31
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