融合洪涝过程模拟与精细化GDP分布格局的济南市洪涝风险评估
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(1.北京师范大学水科学研究院;2.城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室;3.济南市水文中心 )

作者简介:

徐宗学(1962—),男,教授,博士,主要从事城市水文学研究。E-mail:zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239003)


Flood risk assessment in Jinan City by integrating flood process simulation and refined GDP distribution pattern
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(1.College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University; 2.Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology; 3.Jinan Hydrology Center)

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    摘要:

    以济南市小清河黄台桥以上流域为研究区,构建了SWMM-InfoWorks ICM-2D耦合模型,模拟了降雨重现期为5~100a的洪涝过程。整合多源数据重构了100m分辨率精细化GDP分布格局,从致灾、孕灾、承灾、防灾4个维度搭建评估框架,提出了融合城市洪涝过程与精细化GDP分布格局的洪涝风险评估方法。结果表明:相同暴雨重现期下,研究区洪涝风险呈现从城市中心向四周递减的圈层格局,高风险区主要集中于城市主干道,较高风险区覆盖主城区人口密集、高GDP分布区,低风险区主要分布在西北郊区与南部山区;随着降雨重现期增大,高风险区面积从2.67km2扩张至6.49km2,其空间形态由散点演变为沿城市廊道分布,其余风险区范围相对稳定。

    Abstract:

    The upstream Huangtaiqiao area of the Xiaoqinghe River Basin in Jinan City was selected as the study area and a SWMM-InfoWorks ICM-2D integrated model was constructed to simulate flood processes under rainfall return periods of 5 to 100 a. Multi-source datasets were integrated to reconstruct a 100 m-resolution refined GDP distribution pattern, and an assessment framework was constructed covering four dimensions, including hazard-causing factors, disaster-breeding environment, hazard-bearing bodies, and disaster prevention capacity. A flood risk assessment method combining flood process simulation and refined GDP distribution was proposed. The results showed that under the same rainfall return period, the flood risk in the study area presented a concentric pattern decreasing from the urban center to the periphery. High-risk areas were concentrated in urban trunk roads, relatively high-risk areas covered the downtown with high population density and GDP, and low-risk areas were mainly distributed in the northwest suburbs and southern mountainous areas. With the increase of rainfall return period, the area of high-risk areas expanded from 2.67 km2 to 6.49 km2, and their spatial distribution expanded from scattered points to urban corridors, while the scope of other risk-grade areas remained relatively stable. Keywords: flood process simulation; GDP distribution pattern; flood risk assessment; the Xiaoqinghe River Basin; Jinan City 〖FL

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徐宗学,胡嘉玮,陈浩,等.融合洪涝过程模拟与精细化GDP分布格局的济南市洪涝风险评估[J].水资源保护,2026,42(5):31-41.(Xu Zongxue, Hu Jiawei, Chen Hao, et al. Flood risk assessment in Jinan City by integrating flood process simulation and refined GDP distribution pattern[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(5):31-41.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-27
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