基于多源数据融合的洪涝淹没分析
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(1.水利部防洪抗旱减灾技术创新中心;2.中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究所 )

作者简介:

张念强(1980—),男,正高级工程师,硕士,主要从事洪涝模拟与洪水风险管理研究。E-mail:zhangnq@iwhr.com

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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3006403)


Flood inundation analysis based on multi-source data fusion
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(1.Technology Innovation Center for Flood and Drought Prevention and Disaster Reduction, Ministry of Water Resources;2.Institute on Flood & Drought Disaster Prevention and Reduction, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

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    摘要:

    针对洪涝淹没分析中单一数据源覆盖不全、精度有限、时效不足等问题,利用证据权重法融合洪水模拟、遥感监测、社会化调查等多源异构数据,采用“水深×遥感”联合状态证据以避免重复加权,提出了基于多源数据融合的洪涝淹没分析方法。在海河流域兰沟洼蓄滞洪区的实例验证结果表明:在淹没概率阈值为85%时,该方法的召回率较单一的遥感监测、洪水模拟分别提高8.2%、5.0%,F1分数分别提高4.2%、2.8%,准确率分别提高3.4%、2.3%,减少漏报面积5%~8%;将基于该方法的洪涝淹没范围与192个实地调查点进行对比,除边界点外的全部179个淹没点均落在淹没区内,一致性达100%。

    Abstract:

    To address the issues of incomplete coverage, limited accuracy, and insufficient timeliness of single data sources in flood inundation analysis, a flood inundation analysis method based on multi-source data fusion is proposed by using the weight of evidence method to fuse heterogeneous data such as flood simulation, remote sensing monitoring, and social investigation. The joint state evidence of “water depth × remote sensing” is adopted to avoid duplicate weighting. The verification results of the example in the Langouwa flood storage and detention area of the Haihe River Basin show that when the submergence probability threshold is 85%, the recall rate of the proposed method in this paper is 8.2% and 5.0% higher than that of single remote sensing monitoring and flood simulation, the F1 score is 4.2% and 2.8% higher, the accuracy is 3.4% and 2.3% higher, and the missed reporting area is reduced by 5% to 8%. Comparing the flood inundation range based on the method proposed in this article with 192 field survey points, all 179 inundation points except for boundary points fall within the inundation area, with a consistency of 100%. Keywords: multi-source data fusion; flood disaster; inundation analysis; weight of evidence method; the Haihe River Basin 〖FL

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张念强,李娜,俞茜,等.基于多源数据融合的洪涝淹没分析[J].水资源保护,2026,42(5):72-80, 119.(Zhang Nianqiang, Li Na, Yu Qian, et al. Flood inundation analysis based on multi-source data fusion[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(5):72-80, 119.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-27
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