基于熵权-CRITIC耦合赋权法的北京市地下水超采综合治理效果评价
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(1.北京市水科学技术研究院;2.城市地下水监测预警与安全防控北京市重点实验室;3.首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院;4.北京市水资源调度管理事务中心;5.北京市水文总站 )

作者简介:

张梦琳(1991—),女,高级工程师,博士,主要从事地下水资源保护研究。E-mail:mlzhang199109@163.com

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基金项目:

京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项项目(2025ZD1205600);国家重点研发计划项目(2025YFC3215100)


Evaluation of comprehensive management effectiveness of groundwater over-exploitation in Beijing based on entropy weight-CRITIC coupled weighting method
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Affiliation:

(1.Beijing Water Science & Technology Institute; 2.Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Groundwater Monitoring, Early Warning and Safety Control; 3.College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University; 4.Beijing Water Resources Dispatching and Management Affairs Center; 5.Beijing Hydrological Station)

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    摘要:

    为科学量化北京市地下水超采综合治理效果,利用2018—2024年水文气象数据、地下水动态数据、治理措施等资料,构建了包含13项核心指标的评价指标体系,对比了分别基于AHP-GRA主客观结合赋权法和熵权-CRITIC双客观耦合赋权法的评价结果,并采用最大信息系数验证了两种赋权方法的适用性。结果表明:熵权-CRITIC法为更优方法,其耦合权重分布均衡,变异系数为0.11,基于该方法得到的综合评价指数与综合治理影响地下水位变幅的最大信息系数达0.60,评价结果更贴合实际;“控、管、节、调、换、补”六大治理维度成效分化显著,“换”维度波动最大,“节”维度呈边际递减特征,“补”维度持续增长;综合治理效果呈3阶段演化特征,2019年受政策驱动综合评价指数达峰值1.54,2020—2022年降至谷值0.85,2023—2024年回升至0.93,接近基准年(2018年)水平。

    Abstract:

    To scientifically quantify the comprehensive management effectiveness of groundwater over-exploitation in Beijing, this research constructed an evaluation index system consisting of 13 core indicators by using hydrometeorological data, groundwater dynamics data, and management measure data from 2018 to 2024. The evaluation results of the AHP-GRA-based subjective-objective integrated weighting method and the entropy weight-CRITIC dual-objective coupled weighting method were compared, and the maximum information coefficient was utilized to verify the applicability of the two weighting methods. The results indicated that the entropy weight-CRITIC method was identified as the optimal method, which yielded evenly distributed coupled weights with a coefficient of variation of 0.11. The maximum information coefficient between the comprehensive evaluation index calculated via the entropy weight-CRITIC method and the groundwater level variation amplitude affected by comprehensive management reached 0.60, demonstrating that its evaluation results were more consistent with actual conditions. Significant differences in effectiveness were observed among the six governance dimensions including water control, management, conservation, regulation, replacement and recharge. The replacement dimension exhibited the most drastic fluctuation, the conservation dimension showed a marginally diminishing trend, while the recharge dimension maintained a continuously increasing tendency. The comprehensive management effectiveness evolved in three distinct stages:driven by policies, the comprehensive evaluation index peaked at 1.54 in 2019; it declined to a trough value of 0.85 during 2020-2022, and rebounded to 0.93 during 2023-2024, approximating the level of the baseline year

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张梦琳,杨涛,杨卓,等.基于熵权-CRITIC耦合赋权法的北京市地下水超采综合治理效果评价[J].水资源保护,2026,42(5):90-98.(Zhang Menglin, Yang Tao, Yang Zhuo, et al. Evaluation of comprehensive management effectiveness of groundwater over-exploitation in Beijing based on entropy weight-CRITIC coupled weighting method[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(5):90-98.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-27
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