基于高效卷积神经网络的降水临近预报
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(1.天津大学水利工程智能建设与运维全国重点实验室;2.贵州省水利科学研究院;3.中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司 )

作者简介:

李磊菁(1998—),男,工程师,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:llileijing@tju.edu.cn

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基金项目:

天津市科技计划项目(24ZYCGYS00730);国家自然科学基金项目(52279022);贵州省科技厅项目(黔科合服企[2024]016号)


Precipitation nowcasting based on efficient convolutional neural network
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(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Intelligent Construction and Operation, Tianjin University;2.Guizhou Water Conservation Science and Research Institute;3.China Water Resources Beifang Investigation, Design and Research Co., Ltd.)

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    摘要:

    融合卷积神经网络的U-Net模型和Efficient-Net框架构建了轻量化Efficient-UNet模型,以柳林实验流域为例,对典型降雨过程进行1h预见期雷达回波外推,基于全局动态校正、动态分级校正和动态分区校正方法,利用实测降水数据开展定量降水预报,并与U-Net、SmaAt-UNet和3层编码器解码器结构的Simple-UNet模型的预报结果对比。结果表明:在1h预见期内,Efficient-UNet与U-Net模型回波外推效果相似,但Efficient-UNet模型对回波轮廓和变化趋势有更好的外推性能,SmaAt-UNet模型则对强回波有更高的外推精度,Simple-UNet模型的外推效果最差;动态分级和动态分区校正方法的降水预报精度差别不大,与全局动态校正方法相比,降水预报精度均有所提升,Efficient-UNet模型的降水预报精度与U-Net模型较为一致,且优于其他模型,但Efficient-UNet模型参数更少,占用的计算资源也更少。

    Abstract:

    A lightweight Efficient-UNet model was developed by integrating the U-Net model of convolutional neural network with the Efficient-Net framework. Taking the Liulin Experimental Watershed as a case study, radar echo extrapolation with 1h lead time was performed for representative rainfall events. Based on measured precipitation data, quantitative precipitation forecasts were further conducted using the global dynamic correction, dynamic intensity-class correction, and dynamic regional correction methods. The forecast results of the Efficient-UNet model were systematically compared with those of the U-Net model, the SmaAt-UNet model, and the Simple-UNet model with a three-layer encoder-decoder structure. The results showed that, within 1h lead time, the Efficient-UNet model achieved radar echo extrapolation performance comparable to the U-Net model, and exhibited superior capability in predicting the spatial extent and temporal evolution of radar echoes. The SmaAt-UNet model provided higher accuracy for strong echo, whereas the Simple-UNet model yielded the poorest overall extrapolation performance. The precipitation forecasting accuracies obtained using the dynamic intensity-class and dynamic regional correction methods were comparable, and both outperformed the global dynamic correction method. The precipitation forecasting accuracy of the Efficient-UNet model was generally consistent with the U-Net model and superior to those of the other models, whereas, the Efficient-UNet model required substantially fewer model parameters and lower computational resources. Keywords: precipitation forecasting; convolutional neural network; weather radar; echo extrapolation; U-Net model;Efficient-Net model; the Liulin Experimental Watershed 〖FL

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李磊菁,孙飞飞,李建柱,等.基于高效卷积神经网络的降水临近预报[J].水资源保护,2026,42(5):205-214.(Li Leijing, Sun Feifei, Li Jianzhu, et al. Precipitation nowcasting based on efficient convolutional neural network[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(5):205-214.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-27
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