基于ARMA模型的水环境承载力超载预警研究
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X26

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“十三五”国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404505,2016YFC0401302);国家自然科学基金(51679008)


Research on overload warning of water environment carrying capacity based on ARMA model
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    摘要:

    基于自回归滑动平均(auto regressive moving average,ARMA)模型建立了水环境承载力超载预警模型,应用2001—2014年的全国水环境数据,对2015—2017年的水环境承载力超载状态进行了预警研究。结果表明:2016年水环境承载力超载状态综合指数为1.39,可能出现警情,主要是由于水环境容量承载率超载造成的,建议采取增加污水治理设备数、减少COD和氨氮排放量等措施以预防警情的发生。

    Abstract:

    Based on ARMA(auto regressive moving average)model, an overload warning model of water environment carrying capacity was developed. By using the national water environment data from 2001 to 2014, the overload status of water environment carrying capacity from 2015 to 2017 was studied. The results showed that the comprehensive index of overload state of water environmental carrying capacity was 1. 39 in 2016, which may cause alarm. It is suggested that measures such as increasing the number of sewage treatment equipment, reducing COD and ammonia nitrogen emissions should be taken to prevent the occurrence of alarm.

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刘丹,王烜,曾维华,等.基于ARMA模型的水环境承载力超载预警研究[J].水资源保护,2019,35(1):52-55.(LIU Dan, WANG Xuan, ZENG Weihua, et al. Research on overload warning of water environment carrying capacity based on ARMA model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2019,35(1):52-55.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2018-04-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-01-16
  • 出版日期: 2019-01-20