太湖水龄与水力停留时间关系及参数敏感性
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TV882.9

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国家自然科学基金(51879070)


Relationship between water age and hydraulic residence time in Taihu Lake and parameter sensitivity
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    摘要:

    为了确定太湖水龄与水力停留时间的关系及各主要影响因素的权重,从水龄和水力停留时间的概念出发,耦合对流扩散与一阶降解方程,构建了一种改进的湖体水龄数学模型,并对模型进行了参数率定与验证,同时采用标准化多元逐步回归方法对太湖的出入湖流量、风向、风速和初始水位进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:水龄的概念可以认为是理想化情况下物质质量浓度因物质降解而下降至0所需的时间,与水力停留时间之间存在63%的比例关系;出入湖流量、风向、风速和初始水位4个影响因素的权重分别为64.41%、8.56%、9.57%和17.46%,出入湖流量与初始水位是影响水龄的决定性因素。

    Abstract:

    In order to define the relationship between water age and hydraulic retention time of Taihu Lake, and the weights of the main influencing factors. This research combined the concepts about water age and hydraulic retention time, coupling convection diffusion and first-order degradation equation, An improved mathematical model of lake water age is established. Moreover, the parameters of the model are calibrated and verified. The sensitivity analysis of lake volume, wind direction, wind speed and initial water level was carried out with the method of standardized multiple stepwise regression. The results showed that: The concept of water age can be considered as the time required for 100% degradation of material concentration under ideal circumstances, which has a proportional relationship of 63% with hydraulic retention time. The weight of the four influencing factors are 64.41%, 8.56%, 9.57% and 17.46%, respectively, that is, the amount of water entering and leaving the lake and the initial water level can explain more than 80% of the phenomenon, which is the decisive factor affecting the water age.

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胥瑞晨,逄勇,胡祉冰,等.太湖水龄与水力停留时间关系及参数敏感性[J].水资源保护,2020,36(3):34-39.(XU Ruichen, PANG Yong, HU Zhibing, et al. Relationship between water age and hydraulic residence time in Taihu Lake and parameter sensitivity[J]. Water Resources Protection,2020,36(3):34-39.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-05-13
  • 出版日期: 2020-05-20