洪水预报智能模型在中国半干旱半湿润区的应用对比
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P338

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508101);江苏省杰出青年基金(BK20180022);江苏省“六大人才高峰”项目(NY-004)


Comparison of artificial intelligence flood forecasting models in Chinas semi-arid and semi-humid regions
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为探究不同洪水预报智能模型在我国半干旱半湿润区的应用效果,选用决策树、多层感知器、随机森林和支持向量机4种模型在陕西省3个典型流域进行逐时洪水预报;选择相关系数、纳什效率系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相对误差等评价指标,比较不同预见期下4种模型在半干旱半湿润典型流域洪水预报的适用性。结果表明:在短预见期预报中,4种模型在半湿润区典型流域均可获得较高的预报结果,在半干旱典型流域模拟精度相对偏低,仅支持向量机模型满足预报要求;随着预见期延长,不同模型性能变化差异大,支持向量机模型整体稳定,在小流域实时洪水预报中具有明显优势;随机森林模型与决策树模型精度随预见期延长而缓慢下降,前者适应性更好;多层感知器模型精度随预见期延长而骤减,模型稳定性较差。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the applicability of different artificial intelligence(AI)flood foresting models in Chinas semi-arid and semi-humid regions, four types of AI models including decision tree(DT), multilayer perception(MLP), random forest(RF), and support vector machine(SVM)were selected to conduct hourly flood forecasting in three typical river basins of Shaanxi Province. Statistical metrics including the coefficient of correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, root-mean-square error, mean absolute error and relative error are used to assess the models effectiveness in these typical basins for different forecasting periods. The results show that all models can achieve good performance in the semi-humid basins for short-term forecasting. However, the four AI models have relative lower accuracy in the semi-arid basins, and only the SVM model can achieve satisfactory forecasting accuracy. As the forecasting lead time increases, the performance of different models varies greatly. The SVM model is overall stable and has an obvious advantage for real-time flood forecasting in small and medium-sized basins. Performance of the RF and DT models declines slowly with increasing forecasting lead time, while performance of the MLP model decreases quickly with increasing lead time, showing lower stability.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

张珂,牛杰帆,李曦,等.洪水预报智能模型在中国半干旱半湿润区的应用对比[J].水资源保护,2021,37(1):28-35.(ZHANG Ke, NIU Jiefan, LI Xi, et al. Comparison of artificial intelligence flood forecasting models in Chinas semi-arid and semi-humid regions[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(1):28-35.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-12
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-20
  • 出版日期: 2021-01-20