海河流域降水时空演变特征及其驱动力分析
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P426

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国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603702);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41890822)


Spatial-temporal change characteristics and driving forces of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin
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    摘要:

    选取海河流域35个气象站点1961—2018年逐日降水数据,采用创新趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和Pettitt突变检验法综合分析了海河流域不同量级降水量的时空演变特征,并采用交叉小波探究了太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子对年降水量的影响。结果表明:1961—2018年海河流域降水整体上呈现出减少趋势,其中轻度降水的下降趋势并不显著,强降水变化呈现出超过10%的下降趋势,春秋降水存在增加趋势,夏冬降水呈下降趋势;海河流域降水整体上呈现南多北少的格局,夏季和全年降水在空间上的分布形态相似,受地形因素的影响,以太行山和燕山为界,山前多雨,春秋两季南部降水多,中部降水少;太阳黑子和大气环流异常因子对流域年降水的变化有较强的影响,其中太阳黑子影响最为显著,AO和ENSO的影响次之,PDO的影响最弱。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data of the 35 meteorology stations in the Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2018, this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of the precipitation in different magnitudes in the Haihe River Basin by the methods of innovative trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the Pettitt test. The influences of sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on the precipitation were explored using the cross wavelet analysis method. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2018, the precipitation in the Haihe River Basin shows a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend of light precipitation is not significant and the change of heavy precipitation shows a decreasing trend of more than 10%. Precipitation in spring and autumn has an increasing trend, while that in summer and winter shows a decreasing trend. The precipitation declines from the south to the north. The spatial-temporal change characteristics of summer and annual precipitation in the Haihe River Basin are similar. Due to topographic factors, it is rainy in front of the mountain, which is bounded by Taihang Mountains and Yanshan Mountains. In spring and autumn, more precipitation is in the south and less precipitation in the middle of the Haihe River Basin. Sunspots and anomalous atmospheric circulation factors have exerted strong influences on the precipitation changes. Sunspot has the most significant effect on the precipitation, followed by AO and ENSO, and PDO has the weakest effect.

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邹磊,夏军,张印,等.海河流域降水时空演变特征及其驱动力分析[J].水资源保护,2021,37(1):53-60.(ZOU Lei, XIA Jun, ZHANG Yin, et al. Spatial-temporal change characteristics and driving forces of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(1):53-60.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2020-04-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-01-20
  • 出版日期: 2021-01-20