郑州市降雨-径流关系不确定性分析
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国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0406501);2019年度河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)项目(192102310508);2021年度河南省面上基金(212300410404);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A15)


Uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff relationship in Zhengzhou City
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    摘要:

    为研究郑州市变化环境下的降雨-径流关系,利用1963—2012年郑州市年降水量和年径流量作为基础数据,运用时间突变理论确定径流突变点,将其作为降雨-径流关系的变化点,并将多时间尺度小波分析和集对分析结合研究降雨-径流在多时间尺度上的联系。结果表明:郑州市年降水量无明显变化趋势,年径流量在1985年和2002年发生显著突变,降雨-径流关系愈发复杂;郑州市年降水量具有准2~4 a、5~7 a、6~711 a、23 a、32 a的波动周期,而年径流量具有准2~4 a、4~9 a、8~11 a、17 a的波动周期;郑州市降雨-径流的不确定性关系在短、中、中长周期以同一性为主,在长周期以差异性为主,根据变异年份划分的3个时段基本符合这一规律。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the rainfall-runoff relationship under the changing environment in Zhengzhou City, using the annual precipitation and runoff of Zhengzhou City from 1963 to 2012 as the basic data, the runoff catastrophe point was determined by using the time catastrophe theory as the change point of rainfall-runoff relationship, and the rainfall-runoff relationship on multiple time scales was studied by combining multi time scale wavelet analysis and set pair analysis. The results show that the annual precipitation in Zhengzhou City has no obvious change trend, the annual runoff has a significant mutation in 1985 and 2002, and the rainfall-runoff relationship is becoming more and more complex. The annual precipitation in Zhengzhou City has a fluctuation period of quasi 2—4a, 5—7a, 6—11a, 23a and 32a, while the annual runoff has a fluctuation period of quasi 2—4a, 4—9a, 8—11a and 17a. The uncertainty relationship between rainfall and runoff in Zhengzhou City is dominated by identity in short, medium and medium long periods and difference in long periods, and the three time periods divided according to variation years basically accord with this law.

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张金萍,王宇昊.郑州市降雨-径流关系不确定性分析[J].水资源保护,2021,37(6):1-6.(ZHANG Jinping, WANG Yuhao. Uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff relationship in Zhengzhou City[J]. Water Resources Protection,2021,37(6):1-6.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-11-24
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