The water production module of InVEST model was used to study the temporal and spatial changes of water yield in Hainan Island from 1995 to 2015. At the same time, the land use data in 1995 and 2015 and natural, traffic and social factors were used to simulate the land use changes under different scenarios of Hainan Island in 2035 and their impact on water production function based on the FLUS model. The results showed that the intensification of urbanization in Hainan Island from 1995 to 2015 led to the increase of construction land, which mainly came from the conversion of forest land and cultivated land. From 1995 to 2015, the water yield of Hainan Island was increasing, and the water yield depth showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the northeast and low in the southwest. Under the natural development scenario, Hainan Island will continue the development speed of rapid urbanization in 2035, and the construction land will increase by 36. 7%, resulting in an increase of water production of Hainan Island by 0. 67% compared with 2015. The growth rate of water yield under ecological protection scenario is -0. 21%. The implementation of ecological protection measures can inhibit the increase of water yield well, reduce the risk of flood and ensure the water production function of island ecosystem.