人民币加入SDR 预期对其国际化的影响
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F831

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国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDA043)


The Impact of RMB'S Being Included in SDR on Its Internationalization
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    摘要:

    一国货币的国际化程度主要体现在其国际影响力及对国际主要国家货币汇率波动的反应程度。人民币纳入SDR 货币篮子将会改变人民币在国际货币金融体系中的地位与作用,从而影响人民币国际化程度。基于2015 年8 月11 日至2016 年3 月16 日的样本区间数据,通过构建VAR模型实证检验人民币加入SDR 预期因素对人民币国际化程度的影响。结果发现:第一,人民币加入SDR 预期能够提升人民币在国际货币金融体系中的影响力,尤其是人民币对美元的影响力将大大增加,但是其对世界其他主要货币的影响力仍显不足;第二,样本区间内,人民币自由化程度并没有提升,因为人民币汇率并没有随着世界主要货币汇率的波动而有所变化。

    Abstract:

    The degree of internationalization of a country's currency is mainly reflected in its international influence and the degree of reaction to the international currency exchange rate fluctuations. RMB included in the SDR basket will change the status and role of the RMB in the international monetary and financial system, thus affecting the degree of internationalization of the RMB. This paper constructs the VAR model, and empirically tests the influence of the expected factor of RMB adding in SDR on the degree of internationalization based on the sample interval data from August 11, 2015 to March 16, 2016. The results showed that RMB adding in SDR can enhance the RMB influence on the international monetary and financial system, especially against the dollar. But the RMB influence on other major currencies in the world is still insufficient.During the sample period, the degree of liberalization of the RMB did not increase. For example, the RMB exchange rate does not change with the fluctuation of the world's major currency exchange rates. To give full play to the expected signal function of the RMB to join the SDR, China should actively promote the reform of SDR, while promoting the reform of the financial markets to make the RMB exchange rate move towards a more liberal direction.

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周媛,陈楚.人民币加入SDR 预期对其国际化的影响[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,18(6):41-48.(ZHOU Yuan, et al. The Impact of RMB'S Being Included in SDR on Its Internationalization[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2016,18(6):41-48.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-01-12
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