中国僵尸企业的识别及预警研究
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F279.2;F426

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国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJY004、16CJY007);山东省社会科学规划研究项目青年项目(15DGLJ06)


Research into the Recognition and Early Warning of Chinese Zombie Company
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    摘要:

    僵尸企业近年来成为各界关注的焦点,学术界关于僵尸企业的认定并无共识。识别出僵尸企业是处理僵尸企业问题的第一步,提早预警、防止僵尸企业出现是解决这一问题的根本之策。结合中国国情,将银行补贴和政府补助同时考虑在内,并基于僵尸企业长时间逐步演化的特点,提出符合中国现实的僵尸企业识别方法,在此基础上从财务视角建立了僵尸企业的预警模型。通过3年的预警模型可以看出,现金负债总额比、现金流动负债比、总资产净利润率、流动资产净利润率、扣除非经常性损益后的每股净利润指标具有稳定的预测效果,能够有效实现僵尸企业的预警,为企业提前发现危机,及时采取措施提供了理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Zombie company problem has become a hot topic in recent years,but there is no consensus on the identification of zombies in academic circles. Identify zombie company is the first step to solve zombie company problems and early warning is the fundamental solution to avoiding the emergence of zombie company. Based on the longterm evolution characteristics of zombie enterprises, the paper proposes zombie enterprises’ identification method that conforms to China’s reality, combining with China’s national conditions and taking bank subsidies and government subsidies into consideration. Then it establishes early warning model of zombie enterprises from the perspective of finance. Built on the analysis of threeyear early warning model, it is found that the ratio of total cash liabilities, cash flow liabilities, net profit margin of total assets, net profit margin of current assets, net profit per share after deducting nonrecurring gains and losses have stable forecasting effect, which can realize the warning of zombie enterprises. It provides theoretical basis for enterprises to detect crises in advance and take measures on time.

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引用本文

孙 莹 崔 静.中国僵尸企业的识别及预警研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,19(5):81-88.(SUN Ying, et al. Research into the Recognition and Early Warning of Chinese Zombie Company[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2017,19(5):81-88.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-11-02
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