缓发性海洋灾害传导机理及对沿海地区发展的影响评价——以海平面上升为例
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F127;X22

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国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDB170)


Research into Transmission Mechanism of Delayed Marine Disasters and Its Impact on Coastal Development:Taking Sea Level Rise for Example
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    摘要:

    作为缓发性海洋灾害的一种主要表现形式,海平面上升已对沿海地区经济社会发展产生了严重影响。在修正“源-路径-受体-影响”理论模型基础上,分析海平面上升对沿海地区发展的影响机理,并采用熵权法定量测算影响程度。研究发现:海平面上升对沿海地区的影响呈现出一定的复杂性和多样性,且本质上反映为“海平面上升扰动能力、区域系统敏感性以及地区应对能力”之间的关系;综合影响指数在空间上表现为“中部低,南北高”的分异特征,且应对性指数同综合影响指数间存在明显负相关关系。基于研究发现,从工程和非工程层面提出应对海平面上升影响的预防性措施。

    Abstract:

    As a major manifestation of the slowmoving ocean disaster, sealevel rise has had a serious impact on the economic and social development of coastal areas. Based on the theory of SPRC, the influence mechanism of sea  level rise on the development of coastal area is analyzed and the entropy weight method is used to quantify it. The study shows that the impact of sea level rise on coastal areas is complex and diverse, and is essentially reflected in the relationship among “sea level uptake disturbance, regional system sensitivity and regional coping ability”. It is also found that the comprehensive impact index is heterogeneous in the special characteristics of “middle part being low and north and south part being high.”, And there was a significant negative correlation between the coping index and the comprehensive impact index. Built on these findings, preventive measures to cope with the impact of sea level rise are proposed from the engineering and non  engineering aspects, and all these measures may be a reference for the sustainable economic and social development in coastal areas.

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梁 皓 王 欢.缓发性海洋灾害传导机理及对沿海地区发展的影响评价——以海平面上升为例[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,20(1):76-82.(LIANG Hao, et al. Research into Transmission Mechanism of Delayed Marine Disasters and Its Impact on Coastal Development:Taking Sea Level Rise for Example[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2018,20(1):76-82.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-02-26
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