基于动态CGE模型的中国暴雨洪涝灾害综合经济损失评估研究
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F224;X43

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国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA047)


Comprehensive Economic Loss Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood in China Based on Dynamic CGE Model
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    摘要:

    随着气候变暖,灾害发生的频率和强度不断增加,有效地开展灾害预防和灾害应急管理需要全面了解灾害对经济的影响。将动态可计算一般均衡模型(DCGE)引入灾害综合经济损失评估,以我国2008—2016年发生的暴雨洪涝灾害为例,构建灾害情境下的DCGE模型,测量每年暴雨洪涝灾害的发生对整个经济系统的影响轨迹。实证结果显示:从当期来看,每年暴雨洪涝灾害的发生都在不同程度上影响社会生产,2008—2016年暴雨洪涝灾害造成总产出的损失值区间为[3525652,40536761]亿元。从长期来看,灾害的累积效应更不容忽视,暴雨洪涝灾害的发生不仅会影响当年的社会经济发展,也会对后期经济发展产生重大影响,若某一时期的灾情较重,后期社会经济所受影响甚至会高于当期灾害会经济系统的冲击。

    Abstract:

    With the climate warming, the frequency and intensity of disasters continue to increase. Effective disaster prevention and disaster emergency management requires a comprehensive understanding of the impact of disasters on the economy. The Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (DCGE) was introduced into the disaster comprehensive economic loss assessment. Taking the rainstorms and floods in China from 2008 to 2016 as an example, the DCGE model in the disaster situation was constructed to measure the impact of the entire economic system. The empirical results show that: from the perspective of the current period, the occurrence of rainstorms and floods affects social production to various degrees. The loss range of China’s total output caused by rainstorms and floods in 20082016 was [3525652, 40536761]billion yuan. In the long run, the cumulative effect of disasters cannot be ignored. The occurrence of rainstorms and floods will not only affect the social and economic development of that year, but also have a significant impact on the economic development in the later period. The results obtained are a useful supplement to the study of disaster economic losses, and can serve as empirical support for government and other departments to carry out postdisaster emergency management.

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李廉水,蔡 洋,谭 玲.基于动态CGE模型的中国暴雨洪涝灾害综合经济损失评估研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020,22(1):28-36.(LI Lianshui, et al. Comprehensive Economic Loss Assessment of Rainstorm and Flood in China Based on Dynamic CGE Model[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2020,22(1):28-36.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-19
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