经济增长、物价稳定双目标驱动下货币政策最优控制研究
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F822

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教育部人文社会科学基金(18YJA790087);国家自然科学基金项目(71563059)


Research on Optimal Control of Monetary Policy under the Dual Objectives of Economic Growth and Price Stability
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    摘要:

    经济增长与物价稳定始终是《中华人民共和国中国人民银行法》所规定货币政策的法定目标。“十三五”时期,中国政府一直坚持通过货币政策精准实现GDP增长与CPI稳定。基于1985—2019年GDP增长率与CPI时间序列数据估计了2020年CPI目标值,建立了我国GDP与CPI的二次线性型最优控制(LQOC)模型。研究发现,“十三五”时期我国GDP预期平均6.5%增速下的CPI为2.77%。利用该结果,对“十四五”规划期间货币政策最优轨迹进行模拟分析,结果显示,要实现“十四五”时期GDP与CPI的预期目标,在坚持稳健货币政策基调的同时,货币政策可以适度宽松,尤其是可以与财政政策积极耦合互动。研究结论有利于提高未来国民经济规划的实现率和精准度,亦能适时完善“十四五”规划的跨周期调节工具体系。

    Abstract:

    Economic growth and price stability are two important targets of monetary policy. During the 13th FiveYear Plan period, the Chinese government has been insisting on achieving GDP growth and CPI stability through accurate monetary policies. Therefore, based on the time series data of GDP growth rate and CPI from 1985 to 2019, this paper estimated the target value of CPI in 2020, and innovatively established the quadratic linear optimal control (LQOC) model of GDP and CPI in China. The results show that the CPI during the 13th FiveYear Plan period is 277% under the expected average GDP growth rate of 6.5%. Finally, using the results, the paper simulates the monetary policy and its effects during the 14th FiveYear Plan period. The results show that in order to achieve the expected targets of GDP and CPI during the 14th FiveYear Plan period, while adhering to the keynote of prudent monetary policy, the monetary policy can be moderately loose, especially can be positively coupled with fiscal policy. The results of this study are beneficial to improve the realization rate of future national economic planning, and timely improve the crosscycle adjustment tool system of the 14th FiveYear Plan.

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伍 梦,徐千雅.经济增长、物价稳定双目标驱动下货币政策最优控制研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2021,23(2):39-46.(WU Meng, et al. Research on Optimal Control of Monetary Policy under the Dual Objectives of Economic Growth and Price Stability[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2021,23(2):39-46.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-13
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