高铁开通对城市人口变化、流量经济集聚的影响
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F532

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国家社会科学基金一般项目(17BRK011)


Impact of the Opening of High-Speed Rail on Urban Population Change and Flow Economic Agglomeration
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    摘要:

    基于2004—2016年我国283个地级以上城市的面板数据,用差分回归模型分析了高铁开通对人口流动及与其相关的“流量经济”集聚水平的影响。结果表明:整体来说,高铁开通促进了沿线城市的人口变化和“流量经济”的集聚;这种影响因城市所在区域的经济发展水平等方面的差异而具有异质性;随着时间推移,早期高铁开通城市的“流量经济”集聚水平略呈倒U形变化。在高铁网配套建设中既要注意空间均衡投资、实现高铁网对经济地理格局重塑和人口合理分布的规划引导作用,也要注意短期内高铁开通引起的中心城市虹吸效应,避免低效率投资。

    Abstract:

    Based on the panel data of 283 cities above prefecture level in China from 2004 to 2016, this paper uses the differential regression model to analyze the impact of the opening of high-speed rail on population mobility and its related “flow economy” agglomeration level. Overall, the opening of high-speed rail has promoted the population flow and the agglomeration of “flow economy” in cities along the line. This impact is heterogeneous due to the differences in regional economic development level of high-speed rail cities. With the passage of time, the agglomeration level of “flow economy” in cities with early high-speed rail opening changed slightly in an inverted U-shape. In the supporting construction of high-speed rail network, we should not only pay attention to the spatial balanced investment and realize the planning and guiding role of high-speed rail network in reshaping the economic and geographical pattern and rational population distribution, but also pay attention to the siphon effect of central cities caused by the opening of high-speed rail in the short term, so as to avoid inefficient investment.

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姚震宇,张松林,陈孝琳.高铁开通对城市人口变化、流量经济集聚的影响[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2021,23(6):70-76.(YAO Zhenyu, et al. Impact of the Opening of High-Speed Rail on Urban Population Change and Flow Economic Agglomeration[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2021,23(6):70-76.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-12-31
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