“一带一路”伙伴国家应对气候变化资金需求评估研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院,北京100029;2.商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院,北京100710)

作者简介:

张建平(1968—),男,研究员,博士,主要从事国际经济、国际区域合作、中国对外投资和可持续发展等研究。E-mail:Zhangjpg@aliyun.com

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F113;X196

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606504)


The Assessment of the Financial Demand of BRI Partner Countries to Cope with Climate Change
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Affiliation:

(China Institute for WTO Studies, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

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    摘要:

    当前,全球气候变化治理走到了关键时刻。中国在双碳目标下高质量建设“一带一路”和建设绿色“一带一路”,资金问题是关键挑战之一。根据“一带一路”伙伴国家接受气候投资现状,基于65个伙伴国家最新提交的国家自主贡献报告,定量分析其气候资金需求并进行合理性评估。经测算,“一带一路”伙伴国家到2030年累积减排总量为9148Gt CO2-eq,减缓和适应资金比例约为5∶3。通过构建成本核算模型,计算出“一带一路”伙伴国家碳减排平均成本为7475美元/t CO2-eq,气候变化资金总需求约为1144万亿美元,而根据UNEP每单位合理减排成本标准计算,“一带一路”伙伴国家合理资金总需求应为585万亿美元。为高质量建设“一带一路”与开展气候国际合作,伙伴国家应进一步完善国家自主贡献报告(NDC),提高气候资金需求合理性,形成和实施“一带一路”气候变化国际合作战略,促进伙伴国家系统性开展气候治理,努力实现15℃/2℃全球温度控制目标,为落实巴黎气候协定和走向2030年全球可持续发展目标做出贡献。

    Abstract:

    Currently, global climate change governance has come to a critical moment. The climate funding is one of the key challenges in China’s high-quality construction of the “Belt and Road” and the “Green Belt and Road” under the dual-carbon target. This study quantitatively analyzes the climate funding needs of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)countries and evaluates the rationality of their funding needs based on the current status of climate investment acceptance and latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) reports submitted by the 65 countries in BRI region. It is estimated that the total cumulative emission reduction of the countries in the BRI region by 2030 will be 91.48 Gt CO2-eq, and the ratio of mitigation and adaptation funds will be about 5:3. In addition, the results of the cost accounting model show that the average cost of carbon emission reduction in BRI countries is 74.75 USD/t CO2-eq, and the total financial demand of climate change is about USD 11.44 trillion. However, according to the UNEP standard of USD 40 per unit of reasonable emission reduction cost, the proper total financial needs of the BRI region should be USD 5.85 trillion. For high-quality construction of the “Belt and Road” and the development of international climate cooperation, the BRI countries should further improve their NDC reports and the rationality of climate funding needs. Then, they should form and implement the “Belt and Road” international cooperation strategy on climate change and promote partner countries to systematically carry out climate governance, so as to achieve the global temperature control target of 1.5℃/2℃ and contribute to the implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement and the global sustainable development goal of 2030.

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引用本文

张建平,张旭.“一带一路”伙伴国家应对气候变化资金需求评估研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2022,24(4):75-87.(. The Assessment of the Financial Demand of BRI Partner Countries to Cope with Climate Change[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2022,24(4):75-87.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-13
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