“一带一路”共建国家银行业系统性风险的测度研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081;2.中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,北京100872;3. 中央财经大学管理科学与工程学院,北京100081)

作者简介:

李建军(1970—),男,教授,博士,主要从事货币金融、金融科技与丝路金融等研究。E-mail: ljjlsh@126.com

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中图分类号:

F112

基金项目:

研究阐释党的二十大精神国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA116);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD058);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173144)


Research on the Measurement of Systematic Risk in the Banking Industry of the Belt and Road Initiative Participant Countries
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Finance, Central University of Financeand Econonomics, Beijing 100081, China;2.National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;3. School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Econonomics, Beijing 100081, China)

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    摘要:

    有效识别“一带一路”共建国家的系统性风险及其关键驱动因素对平稳实现各国经济金融的深度融合具有重大的现实意义。基于150多万条银行微观股票数据和财务数据,通过构建压力时期回归模型的客观方法获得系统性风险三因素权重,在同一框架下利用规模、杠杆、关联性3个因子测算了银行、国家、“一带一路”共建国家系统3个层次的银行业系统性风险指数。研究结果表明,从系统性风险表现来看,“一带一路”共建国家整体的银行业系统性风险受全球宏观金融环境波动影响显著。此外,“一带一路”共建国家也会因为自身问题而出现银行业系统性风险上升的情形。印度、越南、印度尼西亚等国家是系统重要性国家,其银行业系统性风险水平较高;匈牙利、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚等国家的银行业系统性风险水平较低。银行业系统性风险较高的国家主要在于其有较高系统性风险贡献水平的银行,且各行业经济发展状况以及经济增长对国家层面系统性风险有显著的影响。从风险驱动因素看,关联性因子是驱动银行业系统性风险水平变化的主要因素,其次为规模因子和杠杆因子。

    Abstract:

    It is of great practical significance to effectively identify the systemic risks and key driving factors of the “the Belt and Road”co-construction countries for the smooth realization of the deep integration of economies and finance of all countries. Based on the micro stock data and financial data of more than 1.5 million banks, this paper obtains the weights of three factors of systematic risk through the objective method of constructing a regression model in the stress period, and uses three factors of scale, leverage, and relevance to measure the banking systematic risk index at three levels of banks, the country, and the “the Belt and Road” national system under the same framework. The research results show that, from the perspective of system risk performance, the overall banking system risk of the“the Belt and Road” countries is significantly affected by the fluctuation of the global macro financial environment. In addition, the “the Belt and Road” countries will also experience an increase in systemic banking risks due to their own problems. Countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are systemically important with higher levels of systemic risk in their banking industry, while countries such as Hungary, Croatia, and Romania have lower levels of systemic risk in their banking industry. The countries with higher systemic risk in the banking industry mainly consist of banks with higher levels of systemic risk contribution, and the economic development and growth of various industries have a significant impact on systemic risk at the national level. From the perspective of risk driving factors, correlation factors are the main driving factors of systemic risk level changes in the banking industry, followed by scale factors and leverage factors.

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李建军,方意,荆中博.“一带一路”共建国家银行业系统性风险的测度研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2024,26(1):104-117.(LI Jianjun, FANG Yi, JING Zhongbo. Research on the Measurement of Systematic Risk in the Banking Industry of the Belt and Road Initiative Participant Countries[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2024,26(1):104-117.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-01
  • 出版日期: 2024-02-25