资本市场一体化视角下经济政策不确定性的地区差异与资本流动
作者:
作者单位:

(1.南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心;2.南京大学商学院)

作者简介:

周耿(1980—),男,教授,博士,主要从事经济大数据研究。 Email:zhougeng@nju.edu.cn

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173063,72373066);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD059)


Regional Differences in Economic Policy Uncertainty and Capital Flow: From the Perspective of Capital Market Integration
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center, Nanjing University;2.Business School, Nanjing University)

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    摘要:

    当前,财政分权体制带来了区域经济政策不确定性的巨大差异。由于受到EPU指数只有国家层面的限制,研究者无法关注区域EPU对国内资本流动的影响,为此,构建一种基于大数据和人工智能的区域EPU的测度方法,实证检验区域EPU的地区差异对资本跨区流动的影响及作用机制,对“卢卡斯悖论”这一资本流动异象提出新的解释。研究表明,我国区域EPU的地区差异的增大会导致跨区域资本流动的增加。通过对资本流动方向的分析发现,区域EPU差异与资本流动的关系主要体现在欠发达地区向发达地区的流动方向上;资本通常由EPU更高的地区向EPU更低的地区流动:低EPU地区的企业倾向于不主动流出资本,高EPU地区的企业更可能会因避险而流出资本。进一步分析指出,金融发展水平与信用水平对资本流动的发起地区和承接地区存在不对称的影响:对于资本流出的发起地区,当地金融发展水平和信用水平削弱了区域EPU差距与异地并购规模之间的正向关系;而对于资本流入的承接地区则反之。为此,从政府和企业角度提出了应合理规划各项经济政策试点地区、保持经济政策的一致性、大力促进金融行业的发展、重视社会信任的作用和完善异地并购决策机制等政策建议。

    Abstract:

    The current fiscal decentralization system has led to significant differences in regional economic policy uncertainty (economic policy uncertainty, EPU). Due to the limitation of EPU indices being available only at the national level, researchers are unable to examine the impact of regional EPU on domestic capital flows. To address this, a measurement method for regional EPU based on big data and artificial intelligence is proposed. This method empirically investigates the effect and mechanisms of regional EPU disparities on cross-regional capital flows, offering a new explanation for the “Lucas Paradox”, a capital flow anomaly. The study reveals that greater regional EPU disparities in China lead to increased cross-regional capital flows. Analyzing the direction of capital flows shows that the relationship between regional EPU disparities and capital flows is mainly reflected in movements from less developed regions to developed regions. Capital tends to flow from regions with higher EPU to those with lower EPU: enterprises in low-EPU regions are less inclined to actively transfer capital outward, while enterprises in high-EPU regions are more likely to transfer capital outward to mitigate risks. Further analysis indicates an asymmetrical impact of financial development levels and credit levels on the capital-exporting and capital-receiving regions. For capital-exporting regions, local financial development and credit levels weaken the positive relationship between regional EPU disparities and the scale of cross-regional mergers and acquisitions. In contrast, the effect is reversed for capital-receiving regions. Finally, the article offers policy recommendations for the government and enterprises, including reasonably planning pilot areas for various economic policies, maintaining consistency in economic policies, vigorously promoting the development of the financial industry, emphasizing the role of social trust, and improving decision-making mechanisms for cross-regional mergers and acquisitions.

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周耿,刘畅,范从来.资本市场一体化视角下经济政策不确定性的地区差异与资本流动[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2025,27(1):117-131.(ZHOU Geng, LIU Chang, FAN Conglai. Regional Differences in Economic Policy Uncertainty and Capital Flow: From the Perspective of Capital Market Integration[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2025,27(1):117-131.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-20