如何评估老龄化——老龄化测度体系的逻辑演进与范式转型
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(北京师范大学政府管理学院)

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王颖(1973—),女,教授,博士,主要从事人口与经济、老年人力资源开发研究。E-mail:xjtuwy@bnu.edu.cn

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国家社会科学基金项目(18BRK002)


The Mechanism and Path of the Silver Economy Driving High-Quality Technological Innovation of Enterprises:Based on the Situational Analysis of Population Ageing
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(School of Government, Beijing Normal University)

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    摘要:

    在全球人口老龄化持续加深的背景下,如何准确衡量老龄化程度已成为制定养老保障、医疗卫生、公共财政与劳动力政策的重要前提。长期以来,以实足年龄为核心的老年抚养比因计算简便、数据可得性强而被广泛采用,但该指标隐含老年人口在健康状况、劳动参与能力和经济依赖等方面高度同质的假设,不仅难以反映不同国家与时期老龄化进程的真实差异,也可能夸大老龄化的真实负担。随着预期寿命延长、健康水平改善及人力资本结构变化,学界发展出了一系列替代性老龄化测度,从剩余预期寿命、经济依赖、健康与身体功能、教育与人力资本等多个维度对老龄化进行了重新界定与测度。系统梳理人口老龄化测度体系的理论演进与方法转型,沿着“由单维向多维、由静态向动态”的发展路径对基于年龄、经济依赖、健康与身体功能、教育及多维度的测度体系进行分类评述。通过比较分析发现,多维和动态测度能够更充分地揭示老龄人口在各方面的异质性,有助于更准确地评估老龄化的真实负担,但现有测度在指标权重设定、跨国可比性和特征交互关系处理等方面仍存在一定局限。基于此,未来研究应结合地区与群体差异,整合多维的人口特征,构建更具解释力和政策适用性的老龄化测度范式,为积极应对老龄化、开发老年人力资源并实现人口高质量发展提供更加真实及全面的决策依据。

    Abstract:

    Against the background of accelerating global population ageing, accurately assessing ageing has become a crucial prerequisite for formulating policies related to pension systems, healthcare, public finance, and labor markets. For a long time, the old-age dependency ratio based on chronological age has been widely used due to its computational simplicity and data availability. However, it implicitly assumes high homogeneity among older populations in terms of health status, labor participation capacity, and economic dependency, which makes it difficult to capture the substantial cross-country and intertemporal differences in ageing processes and may lead to an overestimation of the actual burden of ageing. With increases in life expectancy, improvements in health conditions, and changes in human capital structures, scholars have gradually developed a series of alternative approaches to redefining and measuring population ageing from multiple dimensions, including remaining life expectancy, economic dependency, health and physical functioning, and education and human capital. This paper systematically reviews the theoretical evolution and methodological transformation of population ageing measurement frameworks. Following a development trajectory from “single-dimensional to multidimensional” and from “static to dynamic”, it classifies and evaluates major measurement approaches based on age, economic dependency, health and physical functioning, education, and multidimensional indicators. A comparative analysis of these approaches reveals that multidimensional and dynamic measures can better capture the heterogeneity of older populations and provide a more accurate assessment of the actual burden of ageing. However, existing measures still face limitations in indicator weighting, cross-national comparability, and the treatment of interactions among population characteristics. Therefore, this paper argues that future research should integrate multidimensional population characteristics while accounting for regional and group-specific differences to construct ageing measurement frameworks with stronger explanatory power and greater policy relevance, thereby providing a more comprehensive and reliable basis for strategies to actively respond to population ageing, developing human resources among the elderly, and achieving high-quality population development.

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王颖,段翘楚.如何评估老龄化——老龄化测度体系的逻辑演进与范式转型[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2026,28(1):60-73.(Wang Ying, Duan Qiaochu. The Mechanism and Path of the Silver Economy Driving High-Quality Technological Innovation of Enterprises:Based on the Situational Analysis of Population Ageing[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2026,28(1):60-73.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-09
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