延迟退休对养老保险基金的调节效应: 基于缴费与给付双重视角的精算模拟
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(中国社会科学院大学政府管理学院)

作者简介:

郭磊(1986—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事养老保险与收入分配研究。E-mail:guolei@ucass.edu.cn

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基金项目:

北京市教育科学“十四五”规划重点项目(BAFA25055)


The Regulatory Effect of Delayed Retirement on Pension Insurance Funds: An Actuarial Simulation Based on the Dual Perspectives of Payment and Benefit
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(School of Government, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

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    摘要:

    延迟退休政策对养老保险财务平衡具有的积极影响,得到了学界和多国实践证明。针对我国人口基数大、人口老龄化快速发展等情况,延迟退休具体方案实施后,亟待评估其长期实施效果并探讨系列配套政策。为近似识别延迟退休政策的因果效应,构建静态精算模型,以1965—1984年出生的城镇男性职工为样本,通过固定平均预期寿命、标准化月缴费额及月给付标准,对改革前基准、常规延迟退休、超常规延迟退休3种情形下养老保险的基金收支进行精算模拟,旨在识别退休年龄调整所产生的纯粹时间效应。研究发现,在静态假设下,延迟退休政策凭借延长缴费年限、缩短养老金领取期限,有效改善了养老保险基金的财务状况。在常规延迟退休情形下,养老金总支付额较改革前基准情形降低了849.65亿元,降幅达到10.5%,基金净收支状况改善1 356.65亿元;在超常规延迟退休情形下,养老金总支付额进一步下降2 540.35亿元,降幅高达31.3%,基金净收支的改善额度则增至3 876.82亿元。研究结果证实,作为一项关键的政策调整工具,延迟退休对于维护养老保险基金的精算平衡具有显著效用。然而,延迟退休政策的实施效果不仅依赖其财务层面的积极效应,更重要的是要制定健全的配套政策并营造良好的社会氛围,为此要通过完善的家庭支持体系、协同的代际就业机制、合理的权益保障措施,处理好“一老一小”的双重照护压力和生育决策、老中青的高质量充分就业和岗位适配等关键问题,增强社会公众对政策的认同感与个体选择的积极性,从而实现制度设计初衷与社会整体福祉的和谐统一。

    Abstract:

    The positive impact of delayed retirement policies on the financial balance of pension insurance has been confirmed by both academic research and the practices of countries. Given China’s large population base and the rapid population aging, it is imperative to evaluate the long-term effects of specific delayed retirement schemes and to explore supporting policies following their implementation. To this end, this study constructs a static actuarial model to approximately identify the causal effects of delayed retirement policies. The sample consists of urban male employees born between 1965 and 1984. By fixing average life expectancy, standardizing monthly contribution levels and benefit payments, and controlling for other confounding factors, this study conducts actuarial simulations of pension fund revenues and expenditures under three scenarios: the pre-reform baseline, conventional delayed retirement, and unconventional (extended) delayed retirement, aiming to isolate the pure time effect generated by adjustments in retirement age. Under the static assumptions, this study finds that delayed retirement policies effectively improve the financial status of pension funds by extending contribution periods and shortening the duration of benefit receipt. Under the conventional delayed retirement scenario, total pension expenditures decrease by CNY 84.965 billion compared to the pre-reform baseline, representing a reduction of 10.5%, while the net fund balance improves by CNY 135.665 billion. Under the unconventional delayed retirement scenario, total pension expenditures further decrease by CNY 254.035 billion, with a reduction of 31.3%, and the net fund balance improvement rises to CNY 387.682 billion. The results confirm that delayed retirement, as a key policy adjustment tool, plays a significant role in maintaining the actuarial balance of pension funds. However, the effectiveness of such policies depends not only on their financial benefits but also on the establishment of a favorable social environment. By improving family support systems tailored to different age groups, fostering coordinated intergenerational employment mechanisms, and ensuring comprehensive labor and social security rights and interests, it is essential to enhance public acceptance of the policy and individuals’ willingness to respond positively, thereby achieving a harmonious alignment between institutional objectives and overall social welfare.

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引用本文

郭磊,赵慧峰,王辰.延迟退休对养老保险基金的调节效应: 基于缴费与给付双重视角的精算模拟[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2026,28(2):81-93.(GUO Lei, ZHAO Huifeng, WANG Chen. The Regulatory Effect of Delayed Retirement on Pension Insurance Funds: An Actuarial Simulation Based on the Dual Perspectives of Payment and Benefit[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2026,28(2):81-93.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-12
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