电商直播提振消费的增量创造与存量替代效应研究
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作者单位:

(1.中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;2.浙江大学经济学院;3.浙大城市学院法学院)

作者简介:

王文凯(1993—),男,助理研究员,博士,主要从事数字经济研究。E-mail:wangwk@cass.org.cn

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中国社会科学院“青启计划”项目(2026QQJH62)


The Incremental Creation or Substitution Effects of E-commerce Live Streaming in Boosting Consumption
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Affiliation:

(1.National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;2.School of Economics, Zhejiang University;3.School of Law, Hangzhou City University)

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    摘要:

    提振内需是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的直接体现,是构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的关键引擎。随着数字技术的飞速发展,以电商直播为代表的数字消费渗透率日益提升,并逐渐成为影响居民消费的重要力量。从消费渠道看,电商直播和线下渠道、传统电商渠道可能是互补关系(这意味着电商直播对消费的影响是增量创造),也可能是竞争关系(这意味着电商直播对消费的影响是存量替代)。理论分析显示,相比线下和传统电商这两种渠道,电商直播创造了新需求、扩展了市场边界、提升了转化率,据此提出电商直播对总体消费的影响是增量扩张而非存量替代的假说。使用2020—2024年省份-季度层面的数据对上述假说进行实证检验,基准回归、稳健性检验、排除竞争性假说及工具变量的结果均显示,电商直播对总体消费的效应是增量扩张。具体而言,由电商直播引致的消费扩张占居民消费增长的比重约为8.9%;异质性分析表明,直播对农村居民消费的促进作用强于城镇居民,且不同直播品类的促消费作用有显著差异,弹性较小的生鲜食品类最强。

    Abstract:

    Boosting domestic demand directly fulfills the people’s growing need for a better life and serves as a key engine for building a new development paradigm centered on domestic circulation while promoting mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulation. With the advancement of digital technology, the penetration rate of digital consumption represented by E-commerce live streaming has steadily increased, exerting a significant impact on domestic demand. From the perspective of consumption channels, E-commerce live streaming may complement offline channels and traditional E-commerce channels (suggesting it drives incremental expansion) or compete with them (indicating it substitutes for existing consumption). Theoretical analysis indicates that, compared to the other two channels, E-commerce livestreaming creates new demand, expands market boundaries, and enhances conversion rates. Based on this, this paper proposes the hypothesis that E-commerce livestreaming has an incremental expansion effect on overall consumption rather than a substitution effect. This paper empirically tests this hypothesis using provincial-quarterly data from 2020 to 2024. Results from benchmark regression, robustness tests, exclusion of competing hypotheses, and instrumental variables all confirm that E-commerce livestreaming drives incremental expansion in overall consumption. Specifically, consumption growth attributable to livestreaming accounts for approximately 8.9% of household consumption growth. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that livestreaming stimulates rural consumption more significantly than urban consumption, with significant variations in consumption-boosting effects across different livestreaming categories—fresh food, exhibiting lower elasticity, showing the strongest effect.

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引用本文

王文凯,胡文杰.电商直播提振消费的增量创造与存量替代效应研究[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2026,28(2):139-151.(WANG Wenkai, HU Wenjie. The Incremental Creation or Substitution Effects of E-commerce Live Streaming in Boosting Consumption[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2026,28(2):139-151.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-12
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