银发浪潮冲击下家庭消费韧性损失研究——基于CHFS追踪调查的微观证据
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(河海大学公共管理学院)

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李梦凡(1987—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事收入分配与社会保障研究。E-mail:lmf@hhu.edu.cn

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国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CJL046);河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B230207051)


The Loss of Household Consumption Resilience amid the Silver Wave: Micro-level Evidence from the CHFS Longitudinal Study
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(School of Public Administration, Hohai University)

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    摘要:

    中国独特的“家文化”对居民消费行为具有深刻影响,构成扩大内需战略的重要微观因素,提升家庭消费韧性对于稳定内需、增强经济系统应对不确定性冲击的能力具有关键意义。基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)追踪数据,构建家庭消费韧性综合指数并通过双向固定效应模型,实证检验家庭成员年龄结构老化(家庭老龄化)对消费韧性的影响及其内在机制。结果表明,家庭老龄化对消费韧性具有显著的负向效应。机制分析揭示,老龄化对消费韧性的影响主要通过降低家庭消费能力、抑制家庭消费意愿和固化家庭消费结构产生。以家庭平均年龄为门槛变量的检验发现,家庭老龄化程度对消费韧性存在非线性影响,且异质性分析显示,韧性损失在已退休和西部地区的老年家庭中更为显著。进一步研究发现,拥有良好健康、代际经济支持和退休再就业老年人的家庭则能有效缓释老龄化的负面冲击。为此,要积极探索长寿时代投资于人的科学内涵,实施劳动者全龄段、包容性就业促进战略来巩固消费能力,健全社会保障体系、有效管理老龄家庭不确定性风险来增强消费信心,引导银发市场和家庭经济融合发展来优化消费结构,持续修复、培育并提升家庭消费韧性,从而增强国内大循环的内生动力。

    Abstract:

    China’s unique “family culture” profoundly influences residents’ consumption behavior, constituting a crucial micro-level factor in the strategy to expand domestic demand. Enhancing household consumption resilience is vital for stabilizing domestic demand and strengthening the economic system’s capacity to withstand uncertain shocks. Based on the longitudinal data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study employs the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method to construct a comprehensive household consumption resilience index. It empirically examines the impact of the aging household structure (household aging) on consumption resilience and its underlying mechanisms through a two-way fixed effects model. The results indicate that household aging exerts a significant negative effect on consumption resilience, primarily through reducing household consumption capacity, suppressing household consumption willingness, and solidifying household consumption patterns. The threshold effect tests show that the impact of household aging on consumption resilience is nonlinear, and heterogeneity analysis reveals that the resilience loss is more pronounced among retired households and elderly households in western China. Further research reveals that households with elderly members who enjoy good health, receive intergenerational economic support, and are re-employed after retirement can effectively offset the negative impacts of population aging. Therefore, it is necessary to actively explore the scientific connotation of investing in human capital in the era of longevity, implement a full-age, inclusive employment promotion strategy for workers to consolidate consumption capacity, improve the social security system, and effectively manage uncertainty risks for aging households to enhance consumption confidence, and guide the integrated development of the silver market and the household economy to optimize consumption structures. It helps continuously repair and enhance household consumption resilience, and strengthen the endogenous driving force for the domestic economic cycle.

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李梦凡,余孟芹,陈际华.银发浪潮冲击下家庭消费韧性损失研究——基于CHFS追踪调查的微观证据[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2026,28(2):152-164.(LI Mengfan, YU Mengqin, CHEN Jihua. The Loss of Household Consumption Resilience amid the Silver Wave: Micro-level Evidence from the CHFS Longitudinal Study[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2026,28(2):152-164.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-12
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