经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展:基于倒U形关系的分析
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(山西财经大学工商管理学院)

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闫春(1973—),男,教授,博士,主要从事企业战略与企业创新研究。E-mail:chyan728@163.com

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国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BGL019);山西省财经高质量发展重大专项研究课题(SXCJGZLYB2503);山西省人力资源高质量发展重大专项研究课题(SXRLZYZS2505)


Economic Policy Uncertainty and High-Quality Development of Private Enterprises: An Inverted “U”-shaped Relationship Analysis
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(School of Business Administration, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics)

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    摘要:

    稳定的政策环境是保障民营企业发展壮大的关键因素。在当前国内外经济形势复杂多变、政策调整频率加大的背景下,深入探讨经济政策不确定性对我国民营企业高质量发展的影响意义重大。基于2003—2023年我国民营上市企业数据,采用双向固定效应模型,实证检验经济政策不确定性对民营企业高质量发展的影响。研究发现:第一,经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展之间存在显著的倒U形关系,在经过一系列稳健性检验与内生性处理后,结论依然成立。第二,战略差异度在经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展之间发挥非线性中介作用。第三,动态能力及其细分维度(吸收能力、适应能力、创新能力)正向调节经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展的倒U形关系,动态能力越强,倒U形曲线形态越平缓、拐点出现越晚。第四,金融资源优势能有效缓解经济政策不确定性带来的融资约束,当企业CEO不具备金融从业背景、供应链金融水平较低或所在城市数字普惠金融发展水平不足时,经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展的倒U形曲线形态更加陡峭,拐点更早出现。

    Abstract:

    A stable policy environment is a crucial factor in ensuring the development and growth of private enterprises. Against the backdrop of complex and volatile domestic and international economic conditions and increasingly frequent policy adjustments, it is of great significance to conduct an in-depth examination of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the high-quality development of private enterprises in China. Based on the data of privately listed enterprises in China from 2003 to 2023, this paper uses a two-way fixed effects model to empirically test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the high-quality development of private enterprises. This paper finds that: First, there is a significant inverted “U”-shaped relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of private enterprises, and the conclusion is valid after a series of robustness tests and endogenous treatment. Second, strategic differentiation plays a nonlinear mediating role between economic policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of private enterprises. Third, dynamic capability and its sub-dimensions (absorptive capacity, adaptability, and innovation capacity) positively moderate the inverted “U”-shaped relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of private enterprises. Specifically, the stronger the dynamic capability, the flatter the inverted “U”-shaped curve, indicating the later occurrence of the inflection point. Fourth, the advantage of financial resources can effectively alleviate the financing constraints brought by economic policy uncertainty. When a firm’s CEO lacks a financial background, the level of supply chain finance is low, or the level of digital inclusive finance development in a city is low, the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of private enterprises presents a steeper inverted “U”-shaped curve with an earlier inflection point. The findings provide valuable insights for private enterprises on how to optimize strategic decision-making, strengthen dynamic capabilities, and leverage financial resources to enhance the quality of their development amid rising economic policy uncertainty.

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闫春,郭鑫鑫.经济政策不确定性与民营企业高质量发展:基于倒U形关系的分析[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2026,28(3):154-166.(YAN Chun, GUO Xinxin. Economic Policy Uncertainty and High-Quality Development of Private Enterprises: An Inverted “U”-shaped Relationship Analysis[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Socail Sciences),2026,28(3):154-166.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-13
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