On the basis of systematically explaining the connotation of high-quality development of policy-based agricultural credit guarantee, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed, which includes two dimensions of "quantitative growth" and "quality improvement".Based on the panel data of 29 provincial agricultural guarantee institutions nationwide from 2018 to 2023, this study conducts a multi-dimensional analysis of the high-quality development level of policy-based agricultural credit guarantee by comprehensively using kernel density estimation, Moran"s I index, Markov chain state transition model, and obstacle factor diagnosis model.Findings reveal that: (1) The average total index of high-quality development of policy-based agricultural credit guarantee nationwide is 24.38%, indicating an overall low level with substantial room for improvement. Notably, the growth in the "quality improvement" dimension lags behind that in the "quantitative growth" dimension.(2) The overall development demonstrates a temporal evolution characterized by "rising levels and expanding disparities," accompanied by significant spatial agglomeration effects. Under the combined effect of path dependence and external spillover effects, future development is expected to show a gradient upward trend, though there are also risks of regression.(3) The primary obstacle factors are the recovery rate, contribution to agricultural and credit markets, number of county-level employees, and county-level credit utilization.Research recommendations suggest promoting the high-quality development of the system by optimizing coordinated development of quantity and quality, improving grassroot service networks, innovating business models, and strengthening regional collaboration mechanisms.This study provides a quantitative basis for grasping the developmental stage characteristics of the policy-based agricultural credit guarantee system and formulating differentiated policies, enriching the theoretical and practical connotations of high-quality development for policy-based financial institutions.